Market Overview

February's CPI report came in hotter than expected for the second straight month. Sticky inflation suggests the Fed could delay an anticipated June interest rate cut despite the market’s...

Social media users claiming to be Bougie Broke share pictures of their fancy cars, high-fashion clothing, and selfies in exotic locations and expensive restaurants. Yet they complain about living...

I must say that I didn’t see this one coming. Credit where credit is due, though: while Street economists were just a little low (consensus was +0.40% headline, +0.30% core), the CPI swap market...

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a...

Today's spotlight is on the crucial US CPI report, with estimates suggesting potential declines in both the monthly and annual core CPI. Market expectations project a decrease in the annual Core...

Friday’s payrolls data for February dispatched another upside surprise, reaffirming the now-consensus view that recession risk is low for the US economy.Hiring rose 275,000 last month, beating...

This week will be dominated by inflation data and the bond auction returning to the 1 PM ET time slot. Today, a 3-year Treasury auction will be at 1 PM ET.Tuesday will release the highly anticipated...

The Biden team keeps talking about how they can’t believe how underwater the President’s poll numbers are when the economy is so frickin’ good. “As soon as people figure out...

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over...

Economic activity remains on a path to slow in the next month’s release of first-quarter GDP data, according to the median nowcast via a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.The...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify in the House today (Wed., Mar. 6) and markets will be all ears on topics that offer guidance on the outlook for interest-rate cuts.The current consensus...

In 2019, the Fed cut interest rates and restarted QE despite a healthy economy. Today, inflation is higher than the Fed’s target, economic growth is above historical trends, and financial...

Stocks fell sharply yesterday, ahead of Jay Powell’s testimony today. It would be great if Powell acknowledged how much financial conditions have eased and that easing conditions could undermine...

In late 2022, I often said that while I didn’t think it would be severe I figured we would have a recession in 2023 because we had never seen an energy spike at the same time that the Fed was...