On Friday, a Wells Fargo analyst increased the price target for Ascendis Pharma (NASDAQ:ASND) shares to $260 from the previous $196, while retaining an Overweight rating on the stock.
The adjustment follows extensive research and discussions with payers and key opinion leaders (KOLs), which led to the belief that Ascendis Pharma's TransCon PTH has a potential market value closer to €3 billion by 2030, as opposed to the €2 billion currently anticipated by the market.
The analyst pointed out that the upcoming PDUFA date for TransCon PTH, set for May 14, 2024, marks a significant milestone for the company. The drug's launch dynamics, according to the analyst, could be similar to ARGX's Vyvgart, suggesting that the current estimates for TransCon PTH in 2024 may be conservative.
Payer discussions indicated favorable access conditions for the drug, with an expectation of good insurance coverage upon release.
TransCon PTH, used in the treatment of Hypoparathyroidism (HypoPTH), is expected to be available through medical exception for the initial three to six months before being added to formularies.
This is seen as a unique situation because parathyroid hormone (PTH) is already included in treatment guidelines and Natpara, a competing product, is being withdrawn from the market. This context is likely to result in lower denial rates for TransCon PTH.
Furthermore, payers have expressed that TransCon PTH will be prescribed with "prior authorization to diagnosis, treat to label," meaning that patients diagnosed with HypoPTH who align with the Phase 3 population are likely to be eligible for treatment.
This aligns with the current medical understanding and practices for treating HypoPTH, potentially streamlining the process for patient access to TransCon PTH.
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