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GLOBAL MARKETS-Caution grips Asian shares before Fed minutes, seminar

Published 08/21/2019, 11:12 AM
Updated 08/21/2019, 11:20 AM
GLOBAL MARKETS-Caution grips Asian shares before Fed minutes, seminar
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* Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
* MSCI ex-Japan near flat; Nikkei falls 0.4%
* U.S. President Trump says he had to 'take China on'
* Eyes on Fed minutes, Jackson Hole meeting for rate outlook

By Swati Pandey and Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Asian shares flatlined on
Wednesday as worries about global recession and endless trade
wars vied with hopes for a lot more monetary and fiscal stimulus
to keep growth going.
Much depends on what the Federal Reserve does with U.S.
interest rates, making markets hyper-sensitive to the minutes -
due later on Wednesday - of its last meeting.
Traders are also awaiting the central bank's annual Jackson
Hole seminar later this week and a Group of Seven summit this
weekend for clues on what additional steps policymakers will
take to boost economic growth.
Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner advised clients to
watch for the use of the word "somewhat" when Fed Chair Powell
describes further policy adjustments.
"Acknowledgment that downside risks have increased with no
characterisation of 'somewhat' could be taken as confirmation
that it is likely the Fed makes a larger cut in September,"
Zentner wrote in a note.
Futures 0#FF: are fully priced for a quarter-point cut in
rates next month, and over 100 basis points of easing by the end
of next year. FEDWATCH
With so much riding on the Fed, investors were
understandably cautious. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS dithered either side of
flat after three straight days of gains.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 slipped 0.4%, while Shanghai blue
chips .CSI300 lost -0.1%. Faring a bit better were E-Mini
futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 , which added 0.25%, while
EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 edged up 0.1%.
President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing down in
his tussle with China, declaring on Tuesday a confrontation was
necessary even if it caused short-term harm to the U.S. economy.
His strongly-worded remarks came hours before his government
announced approval of an $8 billion sale of Lockheed Martin
LMT.N F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan, a move sure to draw
Beijing's ire and further dim prospects for a quick trade deal.
Political turmoil in Hong Kong, Britain and Italy has also
heightened uncertainties for investors. The prospect of new
elections in Italy after the resignation of Prime Minister
Giuseppe Conte added to jitters, sending Italian sovereign bond
yields sliding. STIMULUS
Alarm bells started ringing last week when yields on U.S.
10-year notes fell below two-year yields for the first time
since 2007, an inversion that has presaged previous recessions
and is widely watched by markets.
That was enough to prompt Trump and his advisers to examine
ways to provide a fiscal boost to the U.S. economy, should it be
deemed necessary. In addition, the central banks of the euro zone, Australia
and China are all expected open the monetary spigot further
this year, while Germany is considering fiscal stimulus.
Those prospects have driven yields lower. Benchmark U.S.
10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR stood at 1.57% on Wednesday
from a high of 1.625% on Monday.
Currency markets have been mostly subdued ahead of the
Jackson Hole meeting and Fed minutes. The dollar was a shade
firmer on the yen at 106.48 JPY= after losing 0.4% on Tuesday,
while sterling GBP=D3 was last trading at $1.2170.
The euro EUR= trod water near Tuesday's high of $1.1101.
The dollar index .DXY was on the defensive at 98.178 as it
drifted away from a three-week top touched on Monday.
In commodities markets, U.S. crude CLc1 firmed 17 cents to
$56.26 per barrel while Brent LCOc1 added 23 cents to $60.26.
Spot gold XAU= was a shade weaker at $1,503.88 an ounce.

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Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA
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(Editing by Sam Holmes and Richard Borsuk)

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