MANILA, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The Asian Development Bank (ADB)
said on Wednesday it has lowered its growth forecasts for
developing Asia this year and the next, as a weaker outlook for
China and India indicated softer economic activity elsewhere in
the region.
The bank trimmed its growth forecast for developing Asia to
5.2% in 2019 and 2020, the Manila-based lender said in an
updated annual outlook report, from 5.4% and 5.5% previously.
It cut its growth estimates for China for this year and the
next to 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively, from the 6.2% and 6.0%
forecasts announced in September, on the U.S.-Sino trade
tensions and as higher prices of pork cut into consumer
spending.
"While growth rates are still solid in developing Asia,
persistent trade tensions have taken a toll on the region and
are still the biggest risk to the longer-term economic outlook",
ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said.
"Inflation, on the other hand, is ticking up on the back of
higher food prices, as African swine fever has raised pork
prices significantly", Sawada added.
China's third-quarter economic growth slowed more than
expected to 6% year-on-year, marking its weakest pace in almost
three decades, and at the bottom end of the government's
full-year target range of between 6.0% and 6.5%.
The ADB also lowered its forecast for South Asia's largest
economy India for fiscal years 2019 and 2020 to 5.1% and 6.5%,
from its September estimates of 6.5% and 7.2%, due to liquidity
strains on its non-banking finance companies and slow job
growth.
Southeast Asia's growth this year is expected to be slightly
lower than previously expected, as trade reliant economies like
Singapore and Thailand are hit hard by the trade war and
broader global slowdown.
Developing Asia faces rising food costs, with 2019 and 2020
inflation seen at 2.8% in 2019 and 3.1% in 2020, up from the
lender's previous estimate of 2.7% for both the years.
GDP GROWTH pct
2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
JULY SEPT DEC JULY SEPT DEC
Central Asia 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.3 4.5
East Asia 6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.2
China 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6 5.8
South Asia 6.6 6.6 6.2 5.1 6.7 6.7 6.1
India 6.8 7 6.5 5.1 7.2 7.2 6.5
SEast Asia 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.7 4.7
Indonesia 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2
Malaysia 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7
Myanmar 6.8 n/a 6.6 n/a n/a 6.8 n/a
Philippines 6.2 6.2 6 6 6.4 6.2 6.2
Singapore 3.1 2.4 0.7 0.6 2.5 1.4 1.2
Thailand 4.1 3.5 3 2.6 3.6 3.2 3
Vietnam 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.8
The Pacific 0.4 3.5 4.2 4 3.2 2.6 2.5
Developing 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.2
Asia
INFLATION, pct
2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
JULY SEPT DEC JULY SEPT DEC
Central Asia 8.3 8.1 8 7.8 7.1 7.4 7.3
East Asia 2 2.1 2.3 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.7
China 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.8 2 2.2 3
South Asia 3.6 4.5 4 4.4 5.1 4.9 4.8
India 3.4 4.1 3.5 4 4.4 4 3.8
SEast Asia 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.6
Indonesia 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3
Malaysia 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
Myanmar 5.9 n/a 8 n/a n/a 7.5 n/a
Philippines 5.2 3 2.6 2.6 3.5 3 3
Singapore 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9
Thailand 1.1 1 1 0.9 1 1 1
Vietnam 3.5 3.5 3 3 3.8 3.5 3.5
The Pacific 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.9 3.4 3.3
Developing 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.1
Asia