Market Overview

The Federal Reserve lifted its outlook for core PCE inflation in 2024 but reaffirmed expectations that interest rates will probably fall by the end of the year. Despite the apparent conflict, the...

Four fairly quick observations on this Federal Reserve meeting day, not all of which have anything to do with the Fed:1. The FOMC today announced unchanged policy for now on the overnight interest...

The sharp runup in US inflation in 2021-2022 revived the idea that a so-called real assets portfolio is crucial for asset allocation strategies.But with the peaking of inflation in mid-2022,...

The Fed added Quantitative Easing (QE) to its monetary policy toolbox in 2008. At the time, the financial system was imploding. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke bought $1.5 trillion U.S. Treasury and...

Markets are on edge ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. I believe the Fed will lean hawkish with its messaging as inflation fears return. Contrary to the consensus view, there...

It was an implied volatility day yesterday ahead of the VIX expiration this morning. The important level for the VIX is 14, and as of yesterday, the VIX closed at 13.8.Vixperiation officially...

Analysts are debating if last week’s sticky inflation news is the death knell for a June cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This much is clear: the recent run of news isn’t...

Following the ECB, all eyes are on the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision, and the US central bank is anticipated to hold rates steady. Our proprietary tool now indicates a near-certainty of the...

The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at its March 20 meeting. Recent U.S. inflation reports have reduced expectations for a rate cut by June. Nike & FedEx to report Q3 earnings on March...

A new round of nowcasts continue to estimate that US economic activity will downshift in next month’s release of first-quarter GDP data. Today’s revised estimate is based on the median for...

Stocks finished the day lower following a hotter-than-expected PPI report, which sharply increased rates and the dollar, helping widen credit spreads.The 10-year rate rose by ten bps on the day, and...

Super Tuesday was, if I may, super obvious. Former President Donald Trump clinched nearly every delegate that was up for grabs last week, forcing his Republican challenger, Nikki Haley, out of the...

The mixed news on inflation earlier this week and today didn’t help, but neither did sticky inflation news derail expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June....

Stocks finished mostly lower on the day, with the S&P 500 dropping 19 bps and the NASDAQ 100 falling by 83 bps.Today, we get PPI and Retail sales, and based on the VIX 1-Day, the market...