Natural Gas: Tuesday Likely to Be a Turning Point
Satendra Singh | Jul 17, 2023 23:50
Upon analyzing recent movements in natural gas futures, it is evident that bulls are making an effort to hold immediate support at 2.492 on Monday. This is despite the considerable selling pressure following the announcement of an inventory build-up of only 49 Bcf. This fell short of expectations on July 10, when consequently, August 2023 futures experienced a turbulent ascent to $2.748 on July 11, only to be followed by a subsequent decline triggered by the Baker-Hughes rigs report. Surprisingly, this report revealed an unexpected increase of 11 gas rigs week over week, further amplifying selling pressure.
Bulls can anticipate some support this week, considering the anticipated impressive heat during the 10-16-day period, although it is expected to trend cooler as we approach days 3-9. Similarly, over the weekend, both the GFS and EC models indicate a 5 CDDs cooling trend due to changing weather systems moving towards the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Nonetheless, there is still substantial demand over the next five days, particularly with noteworthy heat spanning from California to Texas. However, surpluses plump at +362 Bcf which are expected to only slightly decrease after the upcoming few EIA reports, are likely to increase selling pressure.
Natural gas is likely to remain extremely volatile on Monday. I find that a strong reversal could push the August futures above $2.676 if prices hold above the 200 DMA till Tuesday afternoon in the hourly chart.
In the 4 Hr. Chart, there is significant support at the 200 DMA, which is at $2.533; there is evidence for strong buying support that could push prices to the psychological resistance point at $3 before this weekly closing, as Accuweather.com reports show:
Very warm to hot high pressure will rule the southern, western, and eastern US with highs of the upper 80s to 110s for strong demand, hottest California to Texas. The Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will be comfortable as weather systems bring w/showers and highs of upper 60s to 80s from July 17 to 23, 2023.
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I conclude that any sudden slip in the August futures up to $2.448 will provide an opportunity to longs, while any sudden bump above $3.148 will attract bears to short.
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Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. All the readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.
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