Natural Gas: This Week Likely to Be a Turning Point
Satendra Singh | Sep 12, 2023 21:46
Since my last analysis, natural gas futures have proven that the $2.5 support level is a prudent trading range between $2.5 and $3.5.
On the first trading session of this week, there was a check, and despite a weekly gap-down opening, natural gas bears could not break through the $2.544 level and instead rallied back to hold above $2.676.
As I am writing this piece, there is a promising outlook for the second confirmation, with a breakout above $2.858 likely.
To better understand the strong reversal in this chart, let's take a look at the movements of the natural gas futures 4-hour chart.
In the 4-hour chart, the natural gas futures are indicating the formation of higher lows, but a series of higher highs is yet to be confirmed. However, it is likely to be completed soon with a breakout above $2.935.
On the demand front, a comfortable US weather pattern is setting up for lighter demand from September 13-23, according to Moody. Natgasweather.com reports
"The far southern US will be hot with highs of 90s to 100s, hottest SW deserts. The rest of the US will be exceptionally comfortable as weak weather systems track through with showers and highs of the upper 60s to 80s for light demand. Hurricane Lee will track off the East Coast this week with rain squalls and heavy surf. Overall, moderate demand early in the week, then becoming low."
I believe that if natural gas futures make a downward move this week but remain above $2.648, it will give a second confirmation before setting a new high this week.
Although volatility could remain higher due to low volumes in options trading, the put/call open interest ratio is below 1, which looks to favor the bulls to remain in control.
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Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. All the readers should create any position at their own risk as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.
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