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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stock markets roiled by global bond whiplash

Published 02/26/2021, 05:38 PM
Updated 02/26/2021, 05:40 PM
© Reuters.

* ECB watching yield surge - Lane
* U.S. 10-yr yields ease after spike to one-year high
* Australia's central bank tries to stem bond bleeding
* Asian shares ex-Japan hit one-month trough
* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
* Dollar lifted by rise in yields
* Gold hits 8-month low

By Tom Arnold and Wayne Cole
LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Global stocks fell on Friday,
with Asian shares down by the most in nine months, as a rout in
global bond markets sent yields flying and spooked investors
amid fears the heavy losses suffered could trigger distressed
selling in other assets.
MSCI's Emerging Markets equity index .MSCIEF suffered its
biggest daily drop in nearly 10 months and was 2.7% lower, while
European shares opened in the red, with the STOXX 600 .STOXX
down 0.7%, recovering from heavier losses earlier in the
session.
The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks
shares in 50 countries, was 0.9% lower and heading for its worst
week in a month.
Asia saw the heaviest selling, with MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS sliding more
than 3% to a one-month low, its steepest one-day percentage loss
since May 2020.
For the week the index is down more than 5%, its worst
weekly showing since March last year when the coronavirus
pandemic had sparked fears of a global recession.
"It is not the beginning of a correction in equities, more a
logical consolidation as price to earnings ratios were
excessive," said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at
Swiss wealth manager Prime Partners.
"What is reassuring is that Q4 2020 earnings were good and
earnings per share suprisingly good and that means down the road
we should get back to growth."
Friday's carnage was triggered by a whiplash in bonds.
The scale of the sell-off prompted Australia's central bank
to launch a surprise bond buying operation to try and staunch
the bleeding. The European Central Bank is monitoring the recent surge in
government bond borrowing costs but will not try to control the
yield curve, ECB chief economist Philip Lane told a Spanish
newspaper. On Friday 10-year German government bond yields DE10YT=RR
were down nearly 4 basis points at -0.267% and French
FR10YT=RR and Austrian AT10YT=RR bonds were back in negative
territory.
Yields on the 10-year Treasury note US10YT=RR eased back
to 1.4530% from a one-year high of 1.614% on Thursday.
"Bond yields could still go higher in the short term though
as bond selling begets more bond selling," said Shane Oliver,
head of investment strategy at AMP.
"The longer this continues the greater the risk of a more
severe correction in share markets if earnings upgrades struggle
to keep up with the rise in bond yields."
Markets were hedging the risk of an earlier rate hike from
the Federal Reserve, even though officials this week vowed any
move was long in the future.
Fed fund futures 0#FF: are now almost fully priced for a
rise to 0.25% by January 2023, while Eurodollars 0#ED: have it
discounted for June 2022.
Even the thought of an eventual end to super-cheap money
sent shivers through global stock markets, which have been
regularly hitting record highs and stretching valuations.
"The fixed income rout is shifting into a more lethal phase
for risky assets," says Damien McColough, Westpac's head of
rates strategy.
"The rise in yields has long been mostly seen as a story of
improving growth expectations, if anything padding risky assets,
but the overnight move notably included a steep lift in real
rates and a bringing forward of Fed lift-off expectations."
Japan's Nikkei .N225 shed 4%, its biggest single-day fall
since April, and Chinese blue chips .CSI300 joined the retreat
with a drop of 2.4%.

EMERGING STRAINS
Overnight, the Dow .DJI fell 1.75%, while the S&P 500
.SPX lost 2.45% and the Nasdaq .IXIC 3.52%, the biggest
decline in almost four months for the tech-heavy index.
Tech darlings all suffered, with Apple Inc AAPL.O , Tesla
Inc TSLA.O , Amazon.com Inc AMZN.O , NVIDIA Corp NVDA.O and
Microsoft Corp MSFT.O the biggest drags.
All of that elevated the importance of U.S. personal
consumption data due later on Friday, which includes one of the
Fed's favoured inflation measures.
Core inflation is actually expected to dip to 1.4% in
January, which could help calm market angst, but any upside
surprise would likely accelerate the bond rout.
The surge in Treasury yields caused ructions in emerging
markets, which feared the better returns on offer in the United
States might attract funds away.
Currencies favoured for leveraged carry trades all suffered,
including the Brazil real, Turkish lira and South African rand.
The flows helped nudge the U.S. dollar up more broadly, with
the dollar index rising to 90.390. It also gained on the
low-yielding yen, briefly reaching the highest since September
at 106.42 JPY= . The euro eased a touch to $1.2144 EUR= .
The jump in yields has tarnished gold, which offers no fixed
return, and dragged it down 0.1% to $1,767.81 per ounce XAU= ,
having earlier fallen to its lowest since June 26.
Oil prices dropped on a higher dollar and expectations of
more supply. O/R
U.S. crude CLc1 fell 1.5% to $62.57 per barrel and Brent
LCOc1 also lost 1.3% to $66.02.

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Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA
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